According to the most recent worst-case scenario forecast, Bitcoin still faces a drop to below $7,000 in the current crypto bear market.
DecenTrader’s evaluation of the world’s top cryptocurrency revealed new revised targets for the cryptocurrency’s price bottom.
The most recent in a series of BTC/USD forecasts, Decentrader co-founder Filbfilb predicted that the pair could fall below $10,000.
“In my worst case scenario, I think that would be probably where we end up, like oldschool, rock-hard support,” he said about a bidding zone around $6,500.
This is where buyers would “probably start refilling their bags,” he added, noting that that level was approximately double the 2018 bear market and March 2020 COVID-19 crash lows.
While “unlikely” under current circumstances, Filbfilb nonetheless argued that more significant repercussions from the FTX implosion could remove bid support higher up the order book, opening up the door for such a capitulation event.
“Until we have further information, that seems unlikely, and as I say, I think the fact that we haven’t dumped harder than we actually really could have done is a good sign for the bulls,” he continued.
According to Cointelegraph, given recent events, BTC/USD has managed to dip less compared to its previous all-time highs than during the last bear markets.
A related debate concerns whether a deeper dive is required to match those bottoms and end the current downtrend.
Filbfilb stated that for Bitcoin to reach a bottom while avoiding the worst-case scenario, it must “dodge some bullets” from FTX fallout, while macro markets must also remain strong.
Other recent chart phenomena were explained in the livestream by Decentrader co-founder Philip Swift, the creator of the data resource LookIntoBitcoin.
Among them was the growing number of Bitcoin wallets holding at least one Bitcoin, with the entire set to surpass one million for the first time.
Swift explained that this directly results from exchange withdrawals in response to FTX.
Although it is 18 months away, the next Bitcoin block subsidy halving event in 2024 will also become a major narrative focus in the coming months, he added.
As a result, “some positive effect on price in terms of media coverage and anticipation of that next halving event” will occur.
A comparison chart revealed that BTC/USD is currently in the lowest part of its four-year cycle, with a strong correlation between 2014 and 2018.